StatusThe thesis was presented on the 28 November, 2012
Approved by NCAA on the 14 June, 2013
Abstract– 1.48 Mb / in romanian
– 1.42 Mb / in russian
Key words: mortality, causes of death, Republic of Moldova, death under-registration, reconstruction method, epidemiological transition.
Field of research: public health, demography
The aim of the research: to evaluate cause-specific mortality trends and patterns for 1965-2010 years based on the reconstructed death time series in terms of the fixed classification and to elaborate some recommendations about the improvement of the process of mortality monitoring.
The objectives of the research: to analyze evolution of the theory of epidemiological transition; to evaluate the quality of mortality statistics and to correct incomplete data; to assure the comparability of cause-of-death time series over 1965-2010 period; to determine the common and specific features in mortality dynamics in the Republic of Moldova compared to other countries; to analyzy mortality dynamics by main and detailed cause of death, sex and age; to determine the priority cause-of-death groups by age to diminish premature mortality in Moldova.
The main novelty of the research: for the first time long-term mortality changes for Moldova are analysed; the alternative estimates of mortality indicators based on the corrected official data due to the mortality under-registration in infancy and at older ages are elaborated; for the first time the method of reconstruction is adopted for the Moldovan data; common and general features of moldovan mortality dynamics are shown in correlation to the social and economic circumstances of the second half of the XXth century; the principal causes of death and age groups contributed the most to very low life expectancy values in Moldova compared to the Western countries are determined.
The important scientific problem solved within the present research: creation of the credibal 1965-2010 cause-specific mortality database that satisfies the criteria of comparability, completeness, regularity and representativenes. The analysis of these data showed the causes of Moldovan mortality crisis and the principal sources of life expectancy growth.
The theoretic value of the research: the incomplete caracter of the epidemiological transition and peculiarities of the formation of the contemporary type of mortality in Moldova are shown.
The practical value of the research: elaboration of hypothesis about the future life expectancy evolution in demographic projections, comparative analysis of mortality by cause in the Republic of Moldova with those countries for whom the reconstruction work was done already (more than 10), for monitoring the efficiency of health policy aimed at the mortality reduction.
Implementation of scientific results: the results of the reearch are used in the activity of the National Commission for population and development within the Government of the Republic of Moldova and the Ministry of Labour, Social Protection and Family. The scientific results of the present study are used in the framework of the international project «Evolution of mortality, health policies and political systems», National Institute of Demographic Studies from France (2006-present), and the institutional project “Socio-demographic evolution of the working population and its impact on the socio-economic development of the Republic of Moldova” carried out by the Institute of European Integration and Political Sciences of ASM (2006-2010).