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Statistical methods for assessing the impact of the economic transition on the condition of Moldovan youth


Author: Bologan Mihail
Degree:doctor of economics
Speciality: 08.00.11 - Economic Statistics
Year:2010
Scientific adviser: Elena Cara
doctor, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Institution:

Status

The thesis was presented on the 23 September, 2010
Approved by NCAA on the 23 December, 2010

Abstract

Adobe PDF document – 0.45 Mb / in romanian

Keywords

youth, external migration, unemployment, Transnistria, statistical methods, demographics, transition, forecasting, human potential, health, employment, youth development index, urbanization of young, remittances, internal migration, unde¬remployment

Summary

Youth represented a new subject for the scientifically investigations, caused by the increasing importance of the role of the youth, and because they are at present the most numerous demographic group in the Republic of Moldova. In the past ten years, several international organizations with representations in Moldova made researches on youth, trying to find out more information about health, participation, unemployment, migration, HIV/AIDS knowledge, asocial behavior etc. In 2006, the Moldovan population of 15-29 years exceeded one million persons, more than ever in the history of the country.

Starting with the main scope and objectives of the current thesis, it was structured as follows: Introduction, three chapters (main content), Conclusions, Recommendations, Bibliography and Appendixes. The first chapter “Theoretical and methodological basis of the youth analysis” represents a deep analysis of the concept of youth, after different researchers, after different methodologies, and the way it is implemented in Moldova. Also, there are explained the methods that could be used for youth analysis and that were implemented in the current thesis. Also, an example of computing the Youth Development Index for Moldova was explained, using UN methodology. The second chapter „Statistical analysis of the socio-economical processes that influences the youth behavior in the transition period” encounters the main issues the young people are facing at present. One of them is the youth situation in the labor market. Youth employment indicators are analyzed, as well as the unemployment ones. Another issue developed in this chapter is the migration of youth both abroad and inside the country, a phenomena which is characteristic for Moldova for the past 10 years. The youth represent the main category that migrates from rural to urban medium, and they represent an important part of people working abroad. Youth are also important part of the demographical processes in Moldova, the majority of the weddings are made between youth, and usually the first child is born, when the parents are younger than 25. Another indicator: the concentration of youth in the Moldova territorial administrative-units, shows how these persons are spread throughout the country. In chapter III „Statistical analysis of the youth condition during the last step of the transition to a market economy” is represented the results of a study made among young people from Moldova, including the transdniestrian region. Such factors as: income, possibility of valuing the human potential, health, access to the information, the alimentation level, unhealthy habits etc. are presented in detail using the methodology of determining the Youth Potential Index (IPTIMO) for Moldova, that shows in what way the possibilities of development of the youth of a certain region are fulfilled. The indicator is computed in percentage and can have the maximum value of 100.