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Argumentation of forecast system for apple pests based on spatial and phenological models integration


Author: Tretiacova Tatiana
Degree:doctor of agriculture
Speciality: 06.01.11 - Plant Protection
Year:2010
Scientific adviser: Vladimir Todiraş
doctor habilitat, associate professor (docent), Institute for Plant Protection and Ecological Agriculture of the ASM
Institution: Institute for Plant Protection and Ecological Agriculture of the ASM

Status

The thesis was presented on the 14 September, 2010
Approved by NCAA on the 4 November, 2010

Abstract

Adobe PDF document – 1.17 Mb / in romanian

Keywords

forecast, phenology, distribution, trap, pheromone, the sum of effective temperatures, degree-day, Biofix, fuzzy sets

Summary

The paper consists of: Introduction, 4 chapters, Conclusions and Recommendation, 217 bibliographic sources, a total volum of 120 pages, containing 17 tables, 29 figures. The obtained results have been published in 16 scientific papers.

Research goal. Improvement of forecast for apple's pests by integrating models of phenological development and spatial distribution.

Objectives: Determination of factors that influence development of codling moth and distribution of European apple sawfly; selection of main factors for predicting of codling moth phenology; aplication a new metodology for processing of initial information; elaboration of model for sawfly spatial distribution, elaboration of model for predicting development of codling moth; integration of phenological and spatial models into an system of forecast.

Methodology: it was carried out by application methods of monitoring, evaluation and statistics Scientific novelty and originality. It was elaborated the algoritm of codling moth phenology forecast in function of degree-day accumulation. It was developed and applicated a new method for degree-day calculating. It was applied a new methodology based on Fuzzy logic. By applying GIS/GPS technology it was carried out the integrating of spatial patterns and phenology that allows to improve the pest forecasting within 2 ± 1 days.

Theoretical significance. Using new methods for calculating of the effective temperatures sum helped reduce the error in forecasting the development of the codling moth from 1.0 to 2.0 days. The problem of symmetrization in the forecasting of the codling moth development has been resolved with applying a new methodology based on Fuzzy set theory.

Application value. The results obtained were used in developing the information system "ProBio". Monitoring with sticky traps using and distribution maps plotting permits to locate key monitoring sites on the block maps. Initial data and Biofix formed the basis for phenology forecasting of the codling moth in different geographical areas of Moldova.

Implementation of scientific results. Research results were incorporated into the Internet (http://i.1asphost.com/probio/) and are used in the Laboratory of Forecast of the General Inspectorate for Fitosanitare Surveillance and Control Seeds of Moldova.