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Theoretical and practical fundaments of agroclimatic potential’s estimation in conditions of global climate changes


Author: Nedealcov Maria
Degree:doctor habilitat of geography
Speciality: 11.00.09 - Meteorology, Climatology, Agrometeorology
Year:2011
Scientific adviser: Tatiana Constantinov (decedat)
doctor habilitat, professor, Institute of Ecology and Geografy of the ASM
Institution: Institute of Ecology and Geografy of the ASM
Scientific council: DH 12-11.00.09-27.03.08
Institute of Ecology and Geografy of the ASM

Status

The thesis was presented on the 5 April, 2011
Approved by NCAA on the 12 May, 2011

Abstract

Adobe PDF document – 1.50 Mb / in romanian

Keywords

agroclimatic potential, climate changes, agroclimatic indexes, heat resources, humidification resources, agroclimatic resources, Geographic Informational Systems, probability indexes, agroclimatic regionalization

Summary

Introduction, five basic chapters, general conclusions and recommendations, bibliography from 314 titles, 199 pages of basic text, 13 annexes, 73 figures, 38 tables. The obtained results are published in 107 scientific works.

Study domain – 11.00.09 – meteorology, climatology, agrometeorology.

Purpose of research: is to establish theoretical and practical fundaments of agroclimatic potential’s estimation, taking into account global climate change. Objectives of the research: estimational grading and also deterministic and stochastic method’s theoretical justification for evaluation of agroclimatic potential in actual climatic conditions; elaboration of new climatic indexes that characterize agroclimatic potential, elaboration of evaluation methods of climate’s pretability level for Republic of Moldova’s agriculture.

Scientific research’s methodology consists in theoretical concepts for basic principals of agroclimatic potential’s estimation in global climate changes conditions aiming for heat and humidification resources’ regionalization.

Scientific novelty. For the first time, theoretical basis of agroclimatic potential estimation in conditions of climatic changes was realized, concluded by establishing new direction in agroclimatic regionalization; theoretical fundaments for deterministic and stochastic methods usage in regional climate’s evolution’s evaluation; scientific argumentation for reconsideration and widening of climatic indexes specter used in actual regionalization of agroclimatic resources; elaboration of Dry Periods Index (Izu), that reflects aridization process’s intensification, especially in the Southern part of the country.

Theoretical significance. A new direction of agroclimatic regionalization was established on the basis of estimational grading method and Geographical Informational Systems as a scientific instrument, resolving one of the most difficult issues of regionalization of not only separate natural components, but also of the whole natural potential. For the first time climatic indexes specter’ widening and other complex indexes (such as Index de Martonne (Im) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)) usage was argumented, thus permitting adequate estimation of agroclimatic potential and access to international databases. Deterministic and stochastic models for complex temporal evaluation of climatic indexes aiming to reveal cyclic and random components were elaborated. Evaluation of damage risk for grapes sorts with different level of frost resistance which will be cultivated on Republic of Moldova’s territory and territorial regionalization taking into account climate pretability for pomiculture’s development were executed. Cartographic models reflecting actual heat and humidification resources on the levels of administrative regions and physical geographical areas were elaborated.

The practical importance of the work: theoretical statements can be applied to evaluation of natural potential’s in whole or by separate components, developed estimations can contribute to correct territorial placement of some groups of agricultural plants; will be used in superior educational establishments at specialty courses.

The obtained results are already implemented in scientific profile institutes under Ministry of Agriculture and Food industry in period of 1999-2010.