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Developing the medium-term analysis and forecast model in the national economy of the Republic of Moldova


Author: Toaca Zinovia
Degree:doctor of economics
Speciality: 08.00.13 - Economico-Mathematical Methods
Year:2012
Scientific adviser: Andrei Gameţchi
doctor, associate professor (docent)
Scientific consultant: Anatol Godonoagă
doctor, associate professor (docent), Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Institution: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova

Status

The thesis was presented on the 21 December, 2011
Approved by NCAA on the 16 February, 2012

Abstract

Adobe PDF document0.69 Mb / in romanian

Keywords

macroeconomic model, simultaneous equations model, recursive equations model, forecasting, cause-effect correlation, feedback, model validation, simulation, target variables.

Summary

The thesis contains introduction, four chapters, conclusion and recommendations, the bibliography of 164 titles, 10 annexes and consists of 159 pages, from which 120 pages of the main part, including 119 formulas, 26 figures and 18 tables. The obtained results are published in 22 scientific papers.

The area of study: the use of econometric methods for developing a macroeconomic model in the national economy of the Republic of Moldova and applying it in medium-term analyses, simulations and forecasts.

The aim of this work consists in elaborating a macroeconometric model of the national economy and its experimental use. Attaining this goal involves the following major objectives: over viewing the practical expertise in developing macroeconometric models; analyzing the modern national economy of the Republic of Moldova; working out the overall scheme of the model; investigating the model systemically, outlining the hierarchy of the cause-effect correlations and their regulation mechanisms; elaborating the econometric model using statistical information of the RM and its experimental usage.

The scientific novelty and originality of obtained results consist in: elaborating a macroeconometric model in which global remittances and indicators are used as exogenous factors; researching apart food products exports; analyzing the model systemically and outlining regulation tools for the national economy; developing evolution scenarios of the national economy in compliance with the forecast assumptions changes; performing simulations by using target variables that determine the impact of budget expenses upon GDP. Solved scientific problem is to develop a macroeconometric model, obtained as a result of research experience in the field of macroeconomic modeling and analysis of the national economy.

The theoretical significance: the undertaken researches may serve as conceptual and methodological elements in continuing scientific investigations in this area. At the same time, the work may be used as a bibliographic support in the teaching process at the economic higher education establishments. In this view, the work may be consulted for various undergraduate and postgraduate courses: mathematical modeling of economic processes, econometrics.

The practical value of the work consists in the possibility of rapid calculation of more evolution scenarios using the main macroeconomic indicators in accordance with exogenous variables change and forecast assumptions. The obtained indicators are interdependent through the cause-effect and feedback correlation, what increases the practical importance of the results.

The scientific results of the work have been approved within the applied research project “Forecasting and monitoring macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Moldova”, carried out at the Institute of Economy, Finance and Statistics. The model is used in elaborating macroeconomic forecasts within the institute that are, afterwards, presented to the Ministry of Economy.