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Estimation of the Exposure of the Republic of Moldova to Some Natural Risks


Author: Mîndru Galina
Degree:doctor of
Speciality: 11.00.11 - Environmental Protection and Rational Utilization of Natural Resources
Year:2019
Scientific adviser: Maria Nedealcov
doctor habilitat, professor, Institute of Ecology and Geografy of the ASM
Institution:

Status

The thesis was presented on the 16 May, 2019 at the meeting of the Scientific Council and now it is under consideration of the National Council.

Abstract

Adobe PDF document0.96 Mb / in romanian
Adobe PDF document1.14 Mb / in english

Thesis

CZU 911.52:502.6(478)(043.2)

Adobe PDF document 2.99 Mb / in romanian
145 pages


Keywords

torrential rains, floods, landslides, impact, estimation, exposure, risk, hazards, Geographic Information Systems, digital maps

Summary

Volume and structure of the thesis.

The thesis consists of: introduction, four chapters, general conclusions and recommendations, 216 bibliography sources, 107 basic text pages, 39 figures, 13 tables, 11 annexes. The results obtained are published in 12 scientific papers and 10 non-co-publishing publications.

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the exposure of the territory of the Republic of Moldova to the manifestation of certain natural risks, such as torrential rains, floods triggered by them and landslides.

Objectives: establishing the spatio-temporal variability of the risks studied for the period 1985-2015; calculating the main parameters of torrential rains in the warm semester of the year (1997-2015); setting the quantitative-temporal gradient of torrential rains (1985-2015) with thresholds ≥ 30, ≥ 50, ≥ 100 and ≥ 150 mm in 24 hours and less); estimate the exposure of the territory of the republic to the spatiotemporal manifestation of said risks, with the elaboration of a set of digital maps reflecting areas with different degrees of exposure to these risks; to develop measures to prevent, reduce and combat the negative effects of these risks in line with the degree of exposure, expressed by the amount of the damage sustained for each individual risk.

Methodology of scientific research. This study has been done through modern working methods, using methods, statistical tests, SIG techniques, including statistical programs - Statgraphics, Instat Plus and ArcGis.

The scientific novelty of the obtained results derives from the topicality of the topic and represents for the first time a complex study of the estimation of the exposure of the territory of the Republic of Moldova to the risk of torrential rains from the warm semester of the year and the floods triggered by them and landslides in administrative- 2015, with the elaboration of a set of digital maps reflecting areas with a different degree of exposure of the territory of the republic to the mentioned risks Scientific results proposed for support: values of the main parameters of the torrenttial rains in the warm semester of the year for the period 1997-2017; digital maps of the degree of exposure of the territory of the republic to the potential calculated risk of the average (i) and peak (I) intensity of the torrential rains for the period 1997-2015; digital maps of torrential rains with quantitative thresholds ≥ 30 and ≥ 50 mm as well as the complex mapping of the number of cases with maximum daily precipitation with thresholds ≥ 30, ≥ 50, ≥ 100 and ≥ 150 mm, fallen in 24 hours and less for the period 1985-2015; digital maps reflecting the degree of exposure of the territory of the republic in the administrativeterritorial aspect to the risk of torrential rains in the warm semester of the year, floods triggered by them and landslides for the period 1997-2015; the complex map of the exposure of the territory to the mentioned risks, indicating the share of the shares at each risk; concrete measures to prevent, mitigate and combat the negative effects of the risks mentioned in accordance with the degree of exposure expressed by the amount of the damage sustained for each individual risk.

The theoretical significance of the study is determined by the first realization of the estimation of the exposure of the territory of the Republic of Moldova to the manifestation of the risks studied in the administrative-territorial profile, with the elaboration of a set of digital maps based on GIS reflecting areas with different degree of exposure of the territory of the republic these risks.

Applicative value of the paper. Developed digital maps reflecting areas of varying degrees of vulnerability to the risks studied in an administrative-territorial profile can be used to rationalize the republic's territory and effectively manage crisis situations. The concrete measures for preventing, reducing and combating the negative effects of said risks, elaborated according to the degree of exposure expressed by the value of the damage incurred for each individual risk.

Implementation of scientific results. The scientific results obtained and the concrete measures to prevent, reduce and combat the negative impacts of these risks are used in: the elaboration of the landscaping and urbanization projects within the INCP Urbanproiect, certified by the Implementation Act of 2018; effective IGSU crisis management to avoid loss of life and material damage, certified by the 2018 Implementation Act; the teaching of specialized courses in higher education institutions, certified by the Implementation Act of 2018. 7