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Impact of the macroeconomic policies based on the computable general equilibrium model (the case of the Republic of Moldova)


Author: Prohnițchi Valeriu
Degree:doctor of economics
Speciality: 08.00.01 - Political Economy; Economic Doctrines
Year:2021
Scientific adviser: Aurelia Tomşa
doctor, associate professor (docent)
Institution: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova

Status

The thesis was presented on the 29 December, 2021 at the meeting of the Scientific Council and now it is under consideration of the National Council.

Abstract

Adobe PDF document1.45 Mb / in romanian
Adobe PDF document1.57 Mb / in english

Thesis

CZU 338.23:330.101.541:330.362(043) (478)

Adobe PDF document 2.53 Mb / in romanian
232 pages


Keywords

General economic equilibrium, computable general equilibrium model with geographical resolution, Social Accounting Matrix, system of national accounts, impact evaluatio

Summary

Thesis structure: Introduction, three core chapters, general conclusions and recommendations chapter; bibliography including 116 sources, 14 figures, 39 tables, 21 tabular annexes. Research activities are reflected in 5 scientific publications.

Research goal: Development of a coherent conceptual framework and adaptation of an applied mathematical economic model for impact evaluation of macroeconomic policy, with an emphasis on fiscal, trade and structural policies in Republic of Moldova.

Research objectives: Compilation of a set of data coherent in micro-, mezo- and macroeconomic perspective, identification of structural interdependencies in the national economy; adaptation of a quantitative model for evaluation of the policy options; mathematical calibration and econometric estimation of model parameters; ex-ante simulation of the macroeconomic policy shocks and their impact evaluation.

Scientific novelty and originality: Deepening of the theoretical and practical research regarding systemic ex-ante impact evaluation of shocks; testing new modalities for integration of the regional economy and of decision-making process in the general equilibrium mechanisms; combination of the calibration and econometric methods for determination of structural and elasticity parameters.

Results contributing to the solution of an important scientific problem: Up-to-date Social Accounting Matrix with real economic flows developed for the national economy; geographical dimension introduced in the computable general equilibrium model; interaction between policy and real economy assessed; distributive impact of macroeconomic policies is evaluated in regional aspect.

Theoretical significance: Development of the methodological basis for the integration of the geographical dimension in the computable general equilibrium models; detailed representation of fiscal, trade and structural policy tools; disaggregation of the governmental flows by relevant administrative levels; theoretical interpretation of simulations results.

Applicative value: Computable general equilibrium model can be applied for ex-ante evaluation of the impact of macroeconomic policy in the national economy, especial tax, budgetary, trade and structural policies. The model also addresses the purpose of impact evaluation of the exogeneous shocks, such as natural, technological and epidemiological phenomena. The Social Accounting Matrix integrating real flows with regional dimension is in itself a result with potentially multiple uses in various applications.

Implementation of scientific results: Results of the research have been used for the training of the key staff of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Moldova in application of the computable general equilibrium models for the ex-ante impact evaluation of the fiscal policy. The model has been instrumental in economic evaluations as requested by the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure (socioeconomic impact of the administrative restrictions imposed by COVID-19 pandemic), World Bank (impact of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement) and UN (impact of COVID- 19 on the inter-generational economy).