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Monetary policy optimisation through the inflation expectations management


Author: Hinev Olga
Degree:doctor of economics
Speciality: 08.00.10 - Finance; Monetary Economics; Credit
Year:2022
Scientific adviser: Victoria Cociug
doctor, associate professor (docent), Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Institution: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova

Status

The thesis was presented on the 31 October, 2022
Approved by NCAA on the 21 December, 2022

Abstract

Adobe PDF document – 1.61 Mb / in romanian
Adobe PDF document – 1.66 Mb / in english

Thesis

CZU [338.23:336.74]:336.748.12(478)(043)

Adobe PDF document 5.23 Mb / in romanian
171 pages

Keywords

central bank, inflation expectations, monetary policy, price stability, inflation, transparency, independence, accountability, communication of central bank

Summary

Thesis structure: introduction, three chapters, general conclusions and recommendations, bibliography from 210 sources, 8 annexes, 137 pages of basic text (up to Bibliography), 36 figures and 25 tables. The obtained results are published in 13 scientific papers.

Research area: Economics.

The purpose of the research: consists in the optimisation of the monetary policy from the perspective of ensuring price stability through the inflation expectations management against the background of maximizing and strengthening the central bank credibility due to the transparency, communication, independence and responsibility of the central bank.

The objectives of the research are summarized in the formulation of the optimal monetary policy notion; the identification of the inflation expectations formation and management mechanism; the studying of monetary policy performance within the international experience in terms of inflation expectations management; the econometric estimation of the inflation process volatility in the Republic of Moldova; the estimation of the independence and transparency degree of the NBM; the concretizing of the NBM's responsibility legal aspect; the simulation of the causal econometric model with the integration of inflation expectations in the price formation process in Moldova.

The scientific novelty and originality is reflected in the foundation of an exhaustive definition of optimal monetary policy with the argumentation of the requirement of a solid institutional framework associated with the independence, transparency and responsibility of the central bank in the inflation expectations management, alongside the assessment of how inflation expectations are able to cause the evolution of the inflation process and deducing the importance of their inclusion in analysis and forecast models applied to the evaluation and establishment of monetary policy from the perspective of its optimization.

The obtained results that contribute to solving the important problem refer to the identification of an exhaustive definition of optimal monetary policies, the definition of the pillars likely to ensure the management of inflation expectations, as well as to finding the opportunity for the persistence of mixed inflation expectations in the price formation process in the Republic of Moldova, both those based on forward-looking, as well as the backward-looking component. This in turn implies the strengthening of institutional credibility to ensure the management of rational inflation expectations on the one hand and, respectively, increasing the degree of financial education of the population on the other hand in order to assimilate the information provided by the monetary authority.

The theoretical significance and the applied value of the paper. The results obtained in the research have the character of a recommendation for the monetary authority of the Republic of Moldova, conferring a niche for the optimisation of the monetary policy due to the inflation expectations management and the recovery of the potential for the forward-looking expectations formation. The analytical formulations and syntheses presented in the thesis, represented by schemes, indicators and econometric models, are useful for students, masters, doctoral students, specialists and experts in the field of research.

The implementation of the scientific results. The research results were presented to the relevant authority in the field, being supported and appreciated by the National Bank of Moldova and by the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, this fact confirmed by the implementation certificates attached to the respective thesis. 7