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Analysis of macroeconomic aggregate data of Southeastern Europe

Author: Gonta Elena
Degree:doctor of economics
Speciality: 08.00.11 - Economic Statistics
Scientific adviser: Ion Pârţachi
doctor, professor, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Institution: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova


The thesis was presented on the 9 December, 2011
Approved by NCAA on the 16 February, 2012


Adobe PDF document0.53 Mb / in romanian


Southeastern Europe, macroeconomic aggregates, domestic product, national income, foreign trade, trade indicators, gravity model, multilateral resistance, Poisson estimator, ethnical fractionalization, linguistic proximity


RESEARCH DOMAIN. The analysis of the macroeconomic situation in Southeastern Europe is done using the methods of macroeconomic, descriptive and inferential statistics.

GOAL. In this paper, are analyzed economic development, and reginal relations in Southeastern Europe, in the context of economic phenomena and socio-political events during the transition.

OBJECTIVES. Studying the economic development in the Southeastern Europe one wants to analyse the economic development during the transition, and to explain the economic regional relations by the economic determinants, as economic development, orientation and quality of trade, and by the socio-political factors, as ethno-linguistic concentration and armed conflicts.

METHODOLOGY. The analysis of economic situation is done using the main macroeconomic aggregates, as GDP, NDP, GNI, trade balance sheet. The analysis of foreign transactions on goods and services of the Southeastern Europe is done using trade indicators, and for their evaluation one uses the gravity model, estimated by the Poisson method.

SCIENTIFIC NOVELTY. The novelty aspect of the present research is to study the importance of the economic and socio-political factors for the economic integration of the Southeastern Europe. The economic analysis shows a relatively small degree of economic cooperation, and puts in evidence the need for regional integration. Next to economic factors, the research of socio-political aspect of regional relations is conditioned by the events of the 90s. In this context, has to be mentioned the importance of the social structure for the development of political events, that had direct effects on economic regional relations. The estimation of a society conjuncture, from this point of view, that is less studied in the case of the Souteastern Europe, allows to evaluate the role of the societal environment for the regional economic relations.

APPLICATIVE VALUE. Putting into evidence the impact of regional socio-political factors and on the basis of obtained results, the institutional reforms concerning the promotion of the social interstate relations could benefite to the development of economic relations in Southeastern Europe.

DISSERTATION STRUCTURE. The main body of the dissertation consists of three chapters. The dissertation volume is 221 pages, from which the main body (until bibliography) represents 135 pages. The bibliography contains 257 sources. The results were published in scientific papers in Moldovan and foreign reviews