StatusThe thesis was presented on the 26 October, 2007
Approved by NCAA on the 20 December, 2007
Abstract– 0.38 Mb / in romanian
ThesisCZU 631.153.5 (478)
1.28 Mb /
The purpose and the objectives of the thesis are determined by the necessity of research and development of the theoretical, methodological and practical perspectives of the economic argumentation of business plans, taking into consideration the peculiarities of the agricultural production. On the basis of the studied fundamental works, the author considers important to point out the modern methods of prediction, with the economic basis of the predictions of the crops productivity and the profit obtained from the sales according to the seasonal variation.
In order to motivate the predictive importance of the various indices of the business plan, it is necessary to take into account the risk factors. In view of the aforesaid, the author considers that it is important to have a complex approach to the concept of business plan risk. In the author’s opinion, the optimal method to base the prediction of the profit obtained from the sale of the agricultural production, is to analyze its perceptibility according to two factors of the operational risks: the instability of the prices and the dynamics of the physical volume of the sales using the methods of the marginal analysis; by means of correlation of the classes, on the basis of expert evaluation, it is possible to determine the degree of influence of various factors during the prices formation for the agricultural production; with a view to motivate the choice of the optimal grape variety in correlation „profit-costs”, the author proposes to use the method of decision tree.
Taking into consideration that, the elaboration of the business plans is an indispensable condition in crisis situations, with a view to predict the bankruptcy in the early stages of the crisis development, the authors created a scoring model to predict the bankruptcy, taking into account the branch peculiarities of the activity of agricultural producers in the Republic of Moldova.
The practical importance of the work consists in the suggestions and the recommendations concerning the improvement of the methodological approaches to the base of the business plans in the agricultural units. The results of the research can be used as methodological material during the educational process within the educational institutions with economic profile, as well as by the specialists of the agencies, which propose training and consultations in the field of planning in the agriculture.
Under consideration  :