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Using of statistical and econometric methods in fundamentation of monetary policy oriented to price stability


Author: Mija Simion
Degree:doctor of economics
Speciality: 08.00.11 - Economic Statistics
Year:2022
Scientific adviser: Ion Pârţachi
doctor, professor, Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova
Institution: Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova

Status

The thesis was presented on the 21 April, 2022
Approved by NCAA on the 1 July, 2022

Abstract

Adobe PDF document – 1.30 Mb / in romanian

Thesis

CZU 303.72:[338.23:336.74]+338.27(478)(043)

Adobe PDF document 3.63 Mb / in romanian
164 pages

Keywords

inflation, monetary policy, econometric models, statistical methodology, price stability, dispersion

Summary

Mija Simion: „Using of statistical and econometric methods in fundamentation of monetary policy oriented to price stability”, PhD thesis in economics, specialty: 523.02 - economic statistics, Chisinau, 2022 Thesis structure: introduction, 4 chapters, general conclusions and recommendations, bibliography of 134 titles, 7 annexes, 112 pages of basic text, 51 figures, 15 tables. The results are published in 15 scientific papers. Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, econometric models, statistical methodology, price stability, dispersion. The purpose of the research: to contribute to solving of the problem studied by drawing up, developing and implementing the statistical methods and techniques to substantiate the role of monetary policy in order to ensure the price stability and maintain it at a low level and with relatively small deviations over time. The objectives of the research: the conceptual argumentation on monetary policy aimed at price stability; the theoretical-methodological substantiation of the econometric and statistical models used in terms of monetary policy; the application of econometric and statistical methods in order to determine the trends, for the effective period, of the relevant macroeconomic indicators; the development of econometric models for forecasting short-term macroeconomic indicators, including prices; the development of the analysis framework through the general model, with impulse-response function and ex-ante evaluation forecasts; the development of the econometric model for identifying the effects of the second round on core inflation; the development of statistical techniques for assessing deviations from inflation forecasts. Scientific novelty and originality: derive from the subject, although continuously actual. The paper envisages the development and presentation of a wide range of techniques and econometric models used to substantiate the monetary policy aimed at price stability. Scientific originality is also determined by the fact that, now, the multitude of data and access to statistical information is everywhere, so the decisive aspect is the skills to use econometric techniques that greatly increase the ability to understand information comprehensively and quickly from statistical data, their specific feature, easily allowing the extraction of their added value. The scientific novelty of the paper is determined by the econometric tools developed to increase the abilities of analysis, forecasting and evaluation of monetary policy. The important scientific problem solved: consists in substantiating scientifically and methodologically the role of the statistical and econometric instruments used for monetary policy fundamentation aimed at price stability. The development of the statistical techniques to determine and substantiate the causal links between relevant economic indicators, creation of a sentiment index for economic activity, assessment of the nature of monetary policy and inflation forecasts, development of techniques for identifying structural interdependencies between variables, and quantification of the monetary policy effects on price stability in the case of the Republic of Moldova. The theoretical significance and the applicative value of the paper: the research can serve as conceptual and methodological elements for the future scientific investigations in this field. The thesis can also be used as a bibliographic support in the teaching process in higher economic education institutions. In this sense, the paper can be consulted for postgraduate courses: econometrics, statistics, mathematical modeling, macroeconomics. Implementation of the scientific results: the results obtained from the research were accepted and confirmed by the National Bank of Moldova and the Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova via the implementation certificates.